Currency-Hedged BRIC ETFs?
I began thinking along those lines on the train into work this week, when I saw a Bloomberg headline that read: “BRICs Biggest Currency Depreciation Since 1998 Set to Worsen.”
Being the ETF geek that I am, the first thing that came to mind was, “Why isn’t there a currency-hedged BRIC ETF on the market yet?”
The Bloomberg story I’m referring to not only illustrated just how rough it’s been in the past 12 months for the currencies of the four BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—it also painted a pretty bleak outlook for them moving forward.
Because Deutsche Bank’s U.S. ETF arm, db-X, has already launched a currency-hedged developing markets portfolio -- the db-X MSCI Emerging Markets Currency-Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEArca: DBEM) -- it strikes me as odd that a BRIC counterpart doesn’t already exist.
That may change in the coming months, but in the meantime we are left pondering what might have been.
Let’s take a look at the currencies of the four BRIC nations over the past year.
As you can see, only the Chinese renminbi, which has a managed exchange rate, was able to escape the negative effects of a strengthening dollar.
The other three currencies—the Brazilian real, Indian rupee and Russian ruble—have all fallen sharply in the past year, with the real and rupee both down more than 20 percent.
For investors in the three existing BRIC funds, all of which have no currency hedges, that means huge losses.
Those funds are the iShares MSCI BRIC Index Fund (NYSEArca: BKF), the Guggenheim BRIC ETF (NYSEArca: EEB) and the SPDR S&P BRIC 40 ETF (NYSEArca: BIK).
What’s interesting about this chart is how big a role currency depreciation has played in setting those returns. Each portfolio’s weightings to Russia, India, Brazil and China is shown below and, by stripping out the currency returns of each, we get two sets of one-year returns: hedged and unhedged.
XRT had a monster day for new money. Which is probably all short. Welcome to Bizarre Land.
Buyers—and sellers—beware: Trading mistakes can be costly, but they are avoidable.
Investors have fewer—but better—choices.
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