[This ETF Industry Perspective is sponsored by Vanguard.]
“What do you think about bitcoin?”
Over the past few months, I’ve gotten this question more than any other. In 2017, bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency, rose by almost 1,200%, prompting excitement and bafflement.
My answer: I’m enthusiastic about the blockchain technology that makes bitcoin possible. In fact, Vanguard is using such technology. As for bitcoin the currency? I see a decent probability that its price goes to zero.
Bitcoin price in U.S. dollars, January 1, 2017–January 22, 2018
Are Cryptocurrencies Currencies?
Bitcoin’s creators introduced the cryptocurrency in the wake of the global financial crisis. The goal was to bypass governments and banks when two individuals want to transact. No country, company, or institution controls the currency. But are bitcoin and competing cryptocurrencies really currencies? Let’s think about what a currency is:
- A currency is a unit of account. Cryptocurrencies qualify, as they can measure the value of other goods and services.
- A currency is a medium of exchange. I’d give cryptocurrencies a qualified yes on this point. Currently, only a limited number of vendors globally accept cryptocurrencies, and recent volatility will only discourage increased adoption.
- A currency is a store of value. Bitcoin is not. Its price volatility undermines its adoption, as fewer vendors will accept a currency whose value can fluctuate so dramatically. The prices of newer currencies have been similarly volatile.
The Existential Dilemma
Let’s call the verdict on the currency question mixed. Even if cryptocurrencies qualify for niche purposes, their prospects seem dubious.
The greatest threat is central banks, which have begun to research blockchain-based currencies and impose regulations on exchanges. Given the additional control and policy effectiveness that digital currencies could provide, central banks have good reason to adopt digital currencies in the coming decades. Those currencies would be “legal tender,” legally recognized forms of payment for all debts and charges.
If the choice were between bitcoin or a blockchain-based dollar, which would you rather have in your digital wallet?
Cryptocurrencies As Investments
The investment case for cryptocurrencies is weak. Unlike stocks and bonds, currencies generate no cash flows such as interest payments or dividends that can explain their prices. National currencies derive their prices from the underlying economic activity of the countries that issue them. Cryptocurrency prices, on the other hand, are generally not based on economic fundamentals. To date, their prices have depended more on speculation about their eventual adoption and use. The speculation creates volatility that, ironically, undermines their value as a currency.
Nor are cryptocurrencies a chance to capitalize on blockchain technology, which is the method most cryptocurrencies use to record network transactions and ensure their accuracy. Although cryptocurrencies are built using a blockchain, they are not necessarily tied to the value of blockchain applications that may improve the cost, speed, and security of executing transactions or contracts. Bitcoin is an investment in blockchain in the same way that Pets.com was an investment in the internet.
For investors, adding some exposure to bitcoin would mean reducing their allocations to tried and true asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and cash—the building blocks for well-diversified portfolios that can help them meet their goals. With no cash flows and extreme volatility, the investment case for bitcoin is hardly compelling.
We are early in the development of blockchain technology. We’ll likely see blockchain adopted by governments and enterprises for specific purposes in the coming decades. As innovation quickens and competition increases, the majority of networks (and their associated cryptocurrencies) may be rendered obsolete, leaving many cryptocurrencies like tulip bulbs in 17th-century Holland—soaring to incredible heights before the speculative bubble pops. And, unlike tulips, they don’t look very nice in a vase.
Joseph Davis, Ph.D., a Vanguard principal, is the global chief economist and global head of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, whose research and client-facing team develops asset allocation strategies and conducts research on the capital markets, the global economy, portfolio construction, and related investment topics. Mr. Davis also chairs the firm’s Strategic Asset Allocation Committee for multi-asset-class investment solutions. As Vanguard’s chief economist, Mr. Davis is a member of the senior portfolio management team for Vanguard Fixed Income Group. He is a frequent keynote speaker, has published white papers in leading academic and practitioner journals, and helped develop Vanguard Capital Markets Model® and the firm’s annual economic and capital markets outlook. Mr. Davis earned his B.A. summa cum laude from Saint Joseph’s University and his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics at Duke University.
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