“The Supreme Court of Monetary Policy” is the Federal Reserve of the United States. It has seven governors and 12 presidents. The seven governors and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York vote on monetary policy all the time; the other 11 presidents rotate. Four of the 11 presidents vote at any one time. The decision-making authority is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with 12 voters at any one time.
Let's count the votes: Seven governors and President Obama controlling the appointments. The Democratic majority in the Senate confirms them. In fact, Obama's support in the Senate has grown. The threat of filibuster, or blockage by senators, has been reduced.
The monetary policy of the U.S. during the Obama administration is the Bernanke policy. Bernanke has clearly established a long-term policy of next-to-zero, short-term interest rates and exceptionally and persistently low longer-term interest rates. Bernanke has delivered precisely the policy he promised. He has had the majority votes of his board and many of the presidents supporting him.
Although Bernanke is willing to tolerate dissenting votes and has had as many as three FOMC members oppose a policy move, the majority and the overwhelming, established position of the Federal Reserve is Bernanke's policy. Bernanke's term will end a year after the inauguration of our re-elected president, but the Bernanke policy will continue. The successor appointees to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will be made by the president who appointed most of the present board and who fully supports the very-low-interest-rate policy.
What is clear from the election outcome is that the interest-rate policy of the U.S. is likely to be defined for the entire Obama second term.
Markets are ignoring this idea. They do not want to accept a very-low-interest-rate policy for a protracted period of time. Markets are also ignoring the fact that the same policy is in play in nearly all major mature economies of the world. In some of those economies, the interest rates are negative. In others, they are near zero. In nearly all cases, the long-term interest rate is somewhere between 1 and 2 percent. In some cases, it is less than 1 percent.
When you price financial assets, hard assets, real estate, precious metals or any type of assets, you must compare the expected return of the particular investment with the riskless return you can obtain from high-grade sovereign debt. We see high-grade sovereign debt, be it the U.S. dollar in U.S. Treasurys, euros in German sovereign debt, yen in Japanese sovereign debt, the British pound in British sovereign debt or the currencies of Sweden or Switzerland or Singapore. Wherever you look, the interest rates on riskless, highest-grade sovereign debt are very low. Note that in the U.S., the high-grade tax-free money market fund in your account pays 0.01 percent. The high-grade taxable money market fund also pays 0.01 percent.
We expect this low-rate environment to translate into very aggressively rising stock prices in the next few years. We expect high-grade bond interest rates to remain low and perhaps go lower. The bond buyer index of high-grade general obligation tax-free bonds recently hit a new low yield.
We expect real estate to commence and accelerate a recovery. That already is starting to happen in certain places. You can buy a house in the U.S., and your residential mortgage interest rate is somewhere around 3 percent. If you use an adjustable rate mortgage for seven years, you are financing your house at a two-handle.
We are not now, nor have we ever been, perennial bulls or perennial bears. In our lifetime, we have been both bullish and bearish. Right now, the situation is setting up to be extraordinarily bullish.
With these low interest rates expected to be in place for many years, opportunities are presenting themselves in the high-grade taxable fixed-income arena. There is a yield above 4 percent. It is not going to stay there forever. It is going to go lower. In the high-grade, tax-free arena, there is a yield of about 3 percent. It is not going to stay there forever. It is going to go lower. Both of those yields—taxable and tax-free—in well-selected and researched securities are higher than the Treasury yields. The Treasury yields are going to go lower.
Those who have been wringing their hands about the big inflation, rising interest rates, weakening dollar, fiscal cliff, tax policy and the election rhetoric have missed markets. They now have an entry opportunity if they did not take advantage of it in the past.
We see high-grade, tax-free bonds as a bargain. We are buying those bonds for our clients. We are selecting and reviewing each and every credit very carefully. The same is true in the taxable fixed-income arena and in the stock markets selectively around the world and in the U.S.
For the U.S., we have taken up our expectations for the S&P 500 Index. We were projecting somewhere around 1,400 to 1,500 at year-end 2012. Our intermediate-term projection was 2,000 on that index at the end of this decade. We think it will be higher. We expect earnings next year from the S&P to be somewhere around $100. They may be low—$97 or $98—or they may be high—$103 or $105. They will be somewhere around $100, plus or minus a couple of dollars. At the end of this decade, we will witness a $20 trillion U.S. economy. It will generate profits and grow at a gradually accelerating rate when you extend the GDP to the end of the decade. So, grow the economy very slowly (1.5 to 2 percent) and have a low rate of inflation. Take the S&P earnings out of the profits of that economy, and the range at the end of the decade is somewhere between $125 and $140. That makes the U.S. stock market cheap.
Cumberland's job is not to manage policy or politics. Our job is to manage portfolios. Cumberland's portfolios are fully invested.
David Kotok is chairman and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, a registered investment advisory firm headquartered in Sarasota, Fla. (with a branch office in Vineland, N.J.). The firm, one of the most established financial advisory firms using ETFs, manages more than $2.2 billion in assets. Kotok’s piece appears on IndexUniverse.com with full permission from Cumberland. For more information, visit www.cumber.com.
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