## [# QQQ: Is the Tech-Led Rally Running Out of Steam?](/sections/features/qqq-stock-nasdaq-100-etf-rally)
# QQQ: Is the Tech-Led Rally Running Out of Steam?
\- The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 has surged 35% in three months as tariff deadline and seasonal headwinds loom.
\- How much longer can this rally really last?
[](/authors/kent-thune)
[By Kent Thune ](/authors/kent-thune)
Jul 23, 2025
Edited by: David Tony
[ + Follow ](/etf/login)
Share Email LinkedIn Facebook X (Twitter)
googletag.cmd.push(function() {
googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-article_page_302x26');
});
Loading
The [**Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)**](/qqq), the $360 billion ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100, dipped 0.5% as of midday Tuesday, potentially signaling that the blistering rally that began at the post-Liberation Day lows may be running out of steam.
After surging nearly 35% and hitting multiple all-time highs since its April 8 trough, QQQ is now encountering headwinds, just as the Aug. 1 tariff deadline approaches and September, historically the weakest month of the year for stocks, lurks around the corner.
With much of the impact from tariffs not yet reflected in economic data and the Leading Economic Index (LEI) [signaling](https://www.etf.com/sections/news/tlt-surges-weaker-leading-economic-indicators-data) a slowdown, now is a good time for advisors and investors to ask: How much longer can this rally really last?
## QQQ Under Pressure as VOO Surpasses $700 Billion AUM
While there's always the possibility that President Donald Trump will strike new trade deals or extend the pause again for key trading partners like China, markets can’t bank on that optimism forever.
If the tariffs do [take effect](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-continues-enforcement-of-reciprocal-tariffs-and-announces-new-tariff-rates/) on Aug. 1 as scheduled, they could deliver a blow to consumer spending, which makes up nearly two-thirds of U.S. GDP.
Higher prices on goods, especially tech imports, may dent demand, further weakening an already shaky economic outlook. That pressure is likely to show up first in technology and consumer electronics, core components of QQQ’s holdings.
And while the [**Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)**](/voo) just passed the $700 billion AUM milestone, a sign of investor confidence, it also underscores the impact of dramatically higher tech stock valuations and means there's a lot of capital at risk when investor sentiment turns sour again.
Other concerns include tighter corporate margins due to supply chain costs, potential retaliation from trade partners and tighter Fed policy if inflation ticks up due to imported price pressures. Taken together, the high valuations of tech stocks and ETFs like QQQ could become especially vulnerable.
### QQQ's 2025 V-Shaped Recovery and Rally Through July 22
[](https://www.etf.com/QQQ)*Source: etf.com & FactSet Data*
googletag.cmd.push(function() {
googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-in_article_unit');
});
## QQQ, Broader Stock Market Face Seasonal Weakness
Even without trade concerns, late summer and early fall are historically rough patches for equities. September and October have long had a reputation for volatility and underperformance and, after such a strong run, market strategists [argue](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/morgan-stanley-sees-sp-500-hitting-7200-by-mid-2026/morgan-stanley-reaffirms-bullish-stance/slideshow/122831158.cms) the rally could be due for at least a modest pullback during the third quarter before a move higher in the fourth quarter or in 2026.
Technology and growth stocks, many of which are arguably priced for perfection, tend to be hit hardest when sentiment shifts. Investors have shown an incredible appetite for mega-cap tech, helping to push indexes to new highs. But those same stocks often carry elevated price-to-earnings ratios, making them vulnerable in an environment where growth may slow and risks rise.
And while QQQ has been a reliable winner during this rally, it’s also the most rate-sensitive and macro-sensitive ETF among the largest funds. If August and September bring disappointing earnings, softer data or geopolitical noise, the retreat could be larger and swifter than expected.
## Stay Vigilant: Diversify and Look Beyond the Headlines
The post-Liberation Day rally has been remarkable, but rallies don’t go up in a straight line, especially when layered with tariff uncertainty, seasonal weakness and signs of slowing growth like we saw in the [latest LEI report](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/).
For advisors and investors, now is a good time to reassess and ask the following questions:
- Are you too concentrated in tech or growth?
- Have you rebalanced your portfolio since the tech rally surged past that of the broader market?
- Do you have defensive exposure or international diversification?
- Are your holdings appropriate for the back half of a potentially volatile year?
While QQQ and VOO may continue to shine, investors would be wise to stay diversified, cautious, focused on long-term goals and consider rebalancing portfolios. Short-term bumps are inevitable, but well-balanced portfolios are designed to weather them.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in ETFs involves risks, and investors should carefully consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.*
*At the time of publication, Kent Thune did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.*
[ + Follow ](/etf/login)
[ Kent Thune CFP, Senior Content Editor ](/authors/kent-thune)
Kent Thune is Senior Content Editor for etf.com, focusing on educational content, thought leadership, content management and search engine… [View Bio](/authors/kent-thune)
Related Topics [Growth](http://www.etf.com/topics/growth)
[Technology](http://www.etf.com/topics/technology)
[Vanguard](http://www.etf.com/topics/vanguard)