##  [# Nvidia Earnings Could Move VOO, QQQ and the Entire Market](/sections/features/nvidia-earnings-could-move-voo-qqq-and-entire-market) 

 

# Nvidia Earnings Could Move VOO, QQQ and the Entire Market

 

 

Nvidia’s earnings report is the most anticipated of the season, with big implications for ETFs like VOO and QQQ that hold massive stakes in the AI giant.



 

 

 

 

 [![sumit](/sites/default/files/styles/author_image_icon/public/2023-03/Sumit_0.png?itok=SO-7S5SH "sumit")](/authors/sumit-roy) 

[By Sumit Roy ](/authors/sumit-roy)

 Aug 25, 2025

 Edited by: ETF.com Staff

 

 

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The most important earnings report of the second-quarter season comes this Wednesday. [Nvidia](/stock/NVDA) will release results after the bell, making it the last of the “Magnificent Seven” to report and the one investors are watching most closely.

That’s partly because it is the world’s most valuable company, with a market cap of $4.4 trillion. More importantly, its central role in the artificial intelligence boom—arguably the single biggest driver for tech and the broader stock market—makes every Nvidia report a market-moving event.

## Heavyweight in ETFs

Nvidia’s massive size means it dominates index funds. With an 8% weighting in the [**Vanguard S&amp;P 500 (VOO)**](/VOO), the [**iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV)**](/IVV), and [**SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)**](/SPY), every broad-market investor has significant exposure to the stock. By comparison, [Microsoft](/stock/MSFT) and [Apple](/stock/AAPL) weigh 6.9% and 6.2%, respectively.  
  
In the [**Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)**](/QQQ), Nvidia’s influence is even greater at 10%. In a sector ETF like the [**Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)**](/XLK), the weight jumps to 16%. And in semiconductor ETFs, it’s bigger still: 22% in the [**VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)**](/SMH).   
  
In today’s top-heavy market, these weights mean Nvidia’s earnings ripple through almost every investor’s portfolio.

 
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## The AI Engine

Investors will closely scrutinize this week’s results for clues about demand for Nvidia’s AI chips, the hardware powering models and applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.   
  
Concerns about overheating AI demand; custom chips from Amazon, Alphabet, and others; and efficiency breakthroughs (like China’s DeepSeek model) occasionally sparked doubt over the past year.  
  
From mid-2024 to mid-2025, Nvidia’s stock treaded water after historic gains, digesting its run-up and weathering these fears. But over the past two months, shares broke out to new records, hitting $183 on Aug. 12.  
  
![nvdastockprice](/sites/default/files/inline-images/NVDA8-25-25.png)  
  
The shift came as Big Tech kept raising capex, with tens of billions earmarked for Nvidia GPUs. Demand for its newest “Blackwell” chips continues to run ahead of supply.  
  
Consensus estimates call for Q2 revenue of $46.2 billion, with Q3 forecast at $53.4 billion. Investors will want to see not just a beat this quarter, but also forward guidance that outpaces expectations.

## The China Question

Another subplot is China. In April, the U.S. restricted exports of Nvidia’s H20 chip, a pared-down Hopper-series GPU. Nvidia estimated a $2.5 billion revenue hit in Q1 and an additional $8 billion in Q2 from lost sales.  
  
In July, reports surfaced that CEO Jensen Huang leveraged his relationship with President Trump to secure a deal to resume shipments (albeit with a 15% U.S. government revenue cut).   
  
But more recently, new wrinkles have emerged, with Chinese regulators discouraging domestic firms from buying H20s, citing security concerns. In response, Nvidia has reportedly asked suppliers to cut back production.  
  
Investors will be listening for updates on whether H20 sales will resume and whether new export-compliant Blackwell variants are possible. Positive surprises on China exports would add fuel to an already bullish outlook, but with the stock at record highs, the market seems to be betting that demand remains overwhelming regardless.   
  
We’ll find out more on Wednesday.



 

 

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 [ Sumit Roy Senior ETF Analyst ](/authors/sumit-roy) 

 

 

  Sumit Roy is the senior ETF analyst for etf.com and author of (Don't) Invest Like a Pro. He creates a variety of content for the platform, including…   [View Bio](/authors/sumit-roy)

 



 

 


 Related Topics  [Artificial Intelligence](http://www.etf.com/topics/artificial-intelligence)