##  [# How Missing Government Data Impacts Fixed Income Portfolios](/sections/conferences/how-missing-government-data-impacts-fixed-income-portfolios) 

 

# How Missing Government Data Impacts Fixed Income Portfolios

 

 

Even with the government reopened, a likely lack of government data for October creates challenges for fixed income investors. Don't miss this deep dive on the growing importance of alternative financial market data, the embedded liquidity risk created by the Fed's quantitative tightening cycle, and mounting private credit concerns.



 

 

 

 

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[By ETF.com Staff](/contributors/etfcom-staff)

 Nov 19, 2025

 Edited by: ETF.com Staff

 

 

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The government shutdown may have concluded, but given the likelihood of no government data for the month of October – and the possibility for another shutdown in January – advisors and investors now contend with the reality of making investment decisions without all the necessary data. Recorded in October at the Astoria Macro Summit during the shutdown, ETF.com's Dave Nadig sat down with Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, to talk fixed income markets. Bianco shared how how he's approaching this new data crisis as well as insights into the real and lingering impacts of quantitative tightening on markets and investors, and why private credit may be the canary in the coal mine.

## Time Stamps and Topics

**(00:00:00) The Impact of Government Shutdowns on Data and Modeling**: Recorded in October, the discussion opens up with the lack of government-released economic data during a shutdown, which makes it difficult for investors and, critically, for models, to function as expected. While private sector data (e.g., car sales, surveys) exists, markets are accustomed to a specific, continuous flow of government data.

**(00:04:25) Market Positioning and Reliance on Financial Data**: Bianco shared how the lack of data impacted his portfolio positions while advocating for finding alternate ways to look at the economy. This includes a heavier reliance on financial market data and various alternative data sources rather than waiting for government reports. The hope is that this will drive a long-term shift towards incorporating more private sector data into models.

**(00:06:10) The “Liquidity Concern” and the Fractional Reserve System**: An overlooked aspect in markets was the Federal Reserve's ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) agenda. The Fed has been right-sizing reserves, but the optimal level is unknown. Signs of reaching or undershooting this level appeared ahead of their announced unwinding of QT following this interview, signaling that the demand for cash from banks is rising faster than the supply.

**(00:10:45) Private Credit and Regulatory Arbitrage**: The current lack of liquidity is making loan losses (which always happen) bother the market, and this is visible in areas like private credit where hits are starting to be announced. Private credit thrives due to regulatory arbitrage, allowing them to underprice traditional banks, but are they becoming too risky?

 
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