##  [# 3 Years of Gains: Are We Due for a Black Swan Event?](/sections/news/3-years-gains-are-we-due-black-swan-event) 

 

# 3 Years of Gains: Are We Due for a Black Swan Event?

 

 

Financial advisors are bullish but cautious. Listen to market experts weigh in on the "Pollyanna" sentiment headed into this year, the risk of a black swan event in 2026, and the Fed's impact on markets by year's end.



 

 

 

 

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[By ETF.com Staff](/contributors/etfcom-staff)

 Jan 15, 2026

 Edited by: ETF.com Staff

 

 

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ETF.com hosts Dave Nadig, President &amp; Director of Research, and Sumit Roy, Senior ETF Analyst, are joined by Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence; Cinthia Murphy, Investment Strategist at TMX VettaFi; and Todd Sohn, Senior ETF &amp; Technical Strategist for Strategas Securities. The group discussed if market momentum can continue for yet another year, what a "yes-man" Fed will do for rates, what hedges investors are turning to. If you found this conversation interesting, you can tune into the full discussion [**here**](https://www.etf.com/sections/podcasts/etf-zoo-etf-explosion-market-top-or-new-baseline).

## The Power of Positive Thinking Meets Skepticism 

**Nadig:** Let’s post some stuff from advisor sentiment. Cinthia, I’m going to grab one of these because one of these came from a presentation you just did with Nate, Nate Geraci at ETF Prime. But this is, this was sort of surprising to me with two different advisor surveys from two different groups. One from VettaFi, one from these guys at InspereX that I’ve never heard of before.

But both of them basically say advisors are real darn bullish on 2026 and very few people think that we’re going to close lower at all. My take here is I’m not nearly this bullish. Does anybody else think this is a little Pollyanna?

**Sohn:** I am admittedly skeptical for the first half of the year. Let’s call it the first three quarters of the year. I think especially from our corner of the world, everyone’s bullish. And midterm election years are usually volatile, which is not a hero thing to say. And you’re coming off of three straight great years. Yes, a fourth year’s not unprecedented, but I think when enthusiasm swings too far in one corner, it’s ripe for a correction.

**Balchunas:** Yeah, I agree. I thought last year with the triple crown, all those three records, the last time that happened was 2021 and that was a utopia year. 2022, nobody expected a big inflation print. That was a black swan. That forced Fed to lower, or raise rates, and it was a brutal year. My Spidey sense is we have to have some black swan hit us a little bit here because of three straight great years. And it seems like when, when people do all turn bullish, that’s when you should be the most skeptical. Whereas last year, it was a lot of negativity and the market overcame that, which is more typically how that works.

The other thing I would say here to counter that, which is that, you know, they’re going to put a new Fed chair in. And it’s going to be a yes-man and the rates are going to come right down. We could have negative rates in a year. It’s so hard to get bearish with that, but with rates going down quickly, that’s when you could get an inflation print or something crazy on that front. But I’m thinking the black swan comes from somewhere else, something we’re not even considering. And the higher you go, the smaller the needle needs to be to pop it because everyone’s already like, ready to take profits.

So I’m skeptical and that’s why I would take the under on the two trillion, Sumit, even though I’m as bullish as they come on ETFs. I think that the stock market's usually—like this year, I bet the stock market going up 18% was good for about 400 billion of the money. I think they’ll take in a trillion natural, but then I think overage would have to have like good markets all around and I’m not—I just don’t know. Like I said, it’s more of a gut feel, but I do think that number looks high.

 
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## Diversification Is Still the Answer for Portfolios

**Murphy:** Well now I’ll just add some context, which is almost ironic. But from that same survey, they’re super bullish, but then when we asked them, "Okay, so what are you most focused on for the next year?" It is diversifying their equity exposure and it is number one client concern: managing risk and maintaining results. If at all improving, but at least maintaining results.

So it’s, they’re bullish, they’re confident, but at the same time they’re like, "You know what, we need to diversify this." A lot of appetite for small caps and international on the questions we asked. So it’s like, yeah, let’s be bullish, but also let’s prepare for a downturn here. So it’s kind of like, it’s a really mixed story, it’s kind of interesting.

**Nadig:** That sounds like the setup for a run in buffered funds, right? I mean we're going to see Goldman Sachs is going to take over Innovator and just spam them out at everything.

**Balchunas:** That’s why [SGOV](https://www.etf.com/SGOV) is a cash vacuum cleaner, because everybody is buying their beta, but they’re also buying SGOV and a couple other—but that one in particular. That’s like your sleep at night, it’s almost like cutting your beta with some, a little sleep at night hedge. Gold is that to a degree, but I think people think gold's a little long in the tooth too. But I think treasuries will never go out of style, especially that particular ETF.

**Sohn:** You know that fund is almost two times as large as [BIL](https://www.etf.com/BIL) and it launched like 13 years after it?

**Balchunas:** I know, it's a beast, man.

*Discover the news, data, and voices shaping the ETF community. Follow along* [***here***](https://www.etf.com/sections/podcasts)*.*



 

 

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