## [# Roundhill Files for ETFs Tied to 2028 Presidential Winner](/sections/features/roundhill-files-etfs-tied-2028-presidential-winner)
# Roundhill Files for ETFs Tied to 2028 Presidential Winner
The filing pushes ETFs into completely new territory.
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[By Sumit Roy ](/authors/sumit-roy)
Feb 17, 2026
Edited by: ETF.com Staff
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Roundhill has filed to launch six ETFs that would provide direct exposure to the outcomes of U.S. federal elections. If approved, the funds would represent the first ETFs built around event contracts.
The proposed lineup includes funds tied to whether a Democrat or Republican wins the White House in 2028, as well as which party controls the Senate and House following the 2026 midterms. Each fund is designed to deliver capital appreciation if a specific outcome occurs and to lose substantially all of its value if it does not.
## How the Structure Works
The ETFs would own “event contracts,” a type of derivative instrument that allows market participants to trade on whether a future event occurs.
These contracts typically settle at $1 if the referenced outcome happens and $0 if it does not. Because of that binary payout structure, their price at any given time, usually somewhere between $0 and $1, reflects the market’s implied probability of the event occurring.
If a Democratic presidential contract is trading at $0.50, for example, the market is assigning roughly a 50% probability to a Democratic victory. If polling shifts or sentiment changes and the contract falls to $0.45, the ETF’s net asset value would decline accordingly. If expectations strengthen and the contract rises to $0.60, the ETF’s NAV would increase.
The mechanics are simple, but the risk profile is extreme. Assuming roughly even odds, an investor buying at $0.50 faces a structure that will either double to $1 or collapse to $0 once the election outcome is determined.
Prices will fluctuate continuously as new information emerges, but on or shortly after election day, the contracts are expected to converge rapidly toward their final settlement value. That convergence would likely produce a sudden and substantial move in the ETF’s NAV.
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## The Specific Election Targets
The presidential funds are tied to the November 7, 2028 election.
If a Democrat wins, the Roundhill Democratic President ETF’s contracts would settle at $1 and the fund would rise accordingly. If a Republican wins, it settles at $0 and the fund loses substantially all of its value.
The Roundhill Republican President ETF is the mirror image. It rises if a Republican wins and collapses if a Democrat wins.
The Senate and House funds follow the same binary structure for control of each chamber after the November 3, 2026 elections. Each fund rises if its specified party wins control and loses substantially all of its value if it does not.
Roundhill intends to gain exposure primarily through swap agreements referencing the event contracts, though the funds may also invest directly in the contracts themselves.
## What Happens After the Election
Importantly, the funds would not terminate after the election is decided. For instance, once the 2028 presidential result is determined, the two funds tied to the race would roll their exposure into contracts tied to the 2032 presidential election.
If the targeted party loses and the fund’s value collapses, it would undergo a reverse stock split before resetting exposure to the next election cycle. If the targeted party wins, the fund would not reverse split and would simply transition into the next election contract.
The structure means these ETFs are designed as perpetual vehicles that continuously track the market implied probability of political outcomes across election cycles.
## Current Probabilities
Currently, Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, suggests there is roughly a 55% chance that a Democrat wins the 2028 presidential election, about a 60% probability that Republicans maintain Senate control in 2026, and an 83% probability that Democrats win control of the House.
The proposed ETFs would effectively package those probabilities into ETFs.
Event contracts have surged in popularity, but trading them often requires specialized platforms (though some brokers such as Robinhood have begun offering access).
ETFs would make these markets accessible more broadly through standard brokerage accounts.
## Beyond Politics
If Roundhill’s funds are approved, they could open the door to a broader wave of event-contract-based ETFs beyond politics. Today, thousands of tradable events span everything from which film wins an Oscar to geopolitical developments, economic data releases, and central bank decisions.
In theory, any of those events could be wrapped into an ETF. Whether that development broadens access to a new asset class or simply makes highly speculative, gambling-like bets easier to place will likely be debated.
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[ Sumit Roy Senior ETF Analyst ](/authors/sumit-roy)
Sumit Roy is the senior ETF analyst for etf.com and author of (Don't) Invest Like a Pro. He creates a variety of content for the platform, including… [View Bio](/authors/sumit-roy)
Related Topics [ETF Launches](http://www.etf.com/taxonomy/term/18028)