## [# Nvidia Earnings: Why ETF Investors Should Be Paying Attention](/sections/features/nvidia-earnings-why-etf-investors-should-be-paying-attention)
# Nvidia Earnings: Why ETF Investors Should Be Paying Attention
At a $4.6 trillion valuation and a dominant index weighting, Nvidia’s quarterly report carries marketwide implications.
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[By Sumit Roy ](/authors/sumit-roy)
Feb 18, 2026
Edited by: ETF.com Staff
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We’re a week away from arguably the most important earnings release of the season. On Wednesday, February 25, [**Nvidia**](/stock/NVDA) will report results for its fiscal fourth quarter.
After climbing 39% last year, the stock has barely budged in 2026, up just 1.4% year to date. Yet with a roughly $4.6 trillion market capitalization, Nvidia remains the single most influential stock in U.S. and global equity benchmarks.
The company currently carries a 7.7% weighting in the [**Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)**](/voo), 6.6% in the [**Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)**](/vti), and 4.1% in the [**Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT)**](/vt).
That means even modest moves in the stock can ripple through broad market ETFs. A 10% swing in Nvidia, for example, translates to roughly 77 basis points of movement in VOO on a given day, all else equal.
## Earnings Reactions Have Calmed
Despite Nvidia’s outsized role and last year’s explosive gains, the stock hasn’t reacted dramatically to earnings in recent quarters.
Last quarter, shares fell 3.2% following results. The quarter before that, they slipped 0.8%. Before that, they rose 3.2%.
The last time the stock moved double digits after earnings was two years ago, in February 2024, when it surged 16.4% after beating revenue expectations by 8.3% for fiscal 2024’s fourth quarter.
Part of that reflects Nvidia’s sheer size. At a $4-plus trillion valuation, it’s harder to move the stock than it was a few years ago. But it also reflects the absence of major surprises.
Recent quarters have largely confirmed what investors already expected. That dynamic could change, of course, if guidance materially diverges from forecasts.
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## High Growth, Lower Multiple
Expectations for the company remain high, but not euphoric. Analysts are projecting revenue growth of roughly 67% year over year for the quarter. For a company of Nvidia’s size, that’s extraordinary.
Yet the valuation has come down. The stock trades at about 24x forward earnings, well below its five- and ten-year averages near 36x. For comparison, the S&P 500 currently trades around 22x forward earnings.
That compression reflects growing trepidation about the future. Concerns have surfaced repeatedly over the past three years, ever since the release of ChatGPT thrust AI into the mainstream, that Big Tech’s spending on AI infrastructure could eventually slow after an unprecedented buildout.
Investors have also questioned whether competition from AMD and custom ASICs such as Google’s TPUs could weigh on demand for Nvidia’s GPUs, and whether memory bottlenecks might pressure margins.
So far, Nvidia has navigated these challenges with strong execution and pricing power. But with expectations anchored at historically elevated levels, the market is focused less on headline growth and more on signs that demand for the company's chips will remain durable.
## The Capex Bull Case
On the other side of the debate is capital spending. Major technology companies have issued enormous capex guidance tied to AI infrastructure. Collectively, hyperscalers are expected to spend hundreds of billions of dollars this year on data centers, with Nvidia's GPUs representing a central component of that investment.
Bulls argue the AI infrastructure buildout is still in its early stages. If AI spending ultimately scales into the trillions over time, Nvidia’s revenue opportunity could exceed even today’s aggressive projections.
Bears counter that the absolute numbers are already staggering and that AI infrastructure risks being overbuilt.
## The Scale of the Business
For the fourth quarter, analysts expect roughly $66 billion in revenue, bringing the full-year total to about $214 billion. For the current fiscal year, consensus estimates hover near $332 billion, with projections climbing toward $425 billion the following year.
Those figures would have seemed implausible just a year ago, but now they form the baseline for investor expectations.
Whether those estimates prove too low or too high may influence not just Nvidia’s stock trajectory, but the direction of the broader market in the near term.
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[ Sumit Roy Senior ETF Analyst ](/authors/sumit-roy)
Sumit Roy is the senior ETF analyst for etf.com and author of (Don't) Invest Like a Pro. He creates a variety of content for the platform, including… [View Bio](/authors/sumit-roy)
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