## [# Nvidia Earnings Wednesday: These ETFs Have the Most Riding on One Stock](/sections/news/nvidia-earnings-wednesday-these-etfs-have-most-riding-one-stock) # Nvidia Earnings Wednesday: These ETFs Have the Most Riding on One Stock Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings Wednesday after the close, with analysts expecting $79 billion in revenue. The result will ripple across **QQQ**, **SMH**, **SOXX**, and every other ETF with significant Nvidia exposure — and some have far more on the line than others. [![ETF.com](/sites/default/files/styles/author_image_icon/public/2023-12/etf.com_400x400.png?itok=LO34LQE1)](/contributors/etfcom-staff) [By ETF.com Staff](/contributors/etfcom-staff) May 18, 2026 Edited by: ETF.com Staff [ + Follow ](/etf/login) Share Email LinkedIn Facebook X (Twitter) googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-article_page_302x26'); }); Loading When Nvidia reports earnings after the bell on Wednesday, May 20, it won't just be a single-stock event. It will be the most consequential moment of the quarter for the entire technology ETF complex. Nvidia accounts for roughly 9.4% of the [**QQQ**](https://www.etf.com/QQQ) (Invesco [**QQQ**](https://www.etf.com/QQQ) Trust), nearly 19% of the [**SMH**](https://www.etf.com/SMH) (VanEck Semiconductor ETF), and 18.5% of the [**VGT**](https://www.etf.com/VGT) (Vanguard Information Technology ETF). A big beat or miss will move billions of dollars in ETF assets before most investors finish their morning coffee on Thursday. ## What Wall Street Expects Consensus estimates call for $79.08 billion in revenue and $1.76 in earnings per share for Nvidia's fiscal first quarter of 2027. Those numbers would represent another quarter of extraordinary growth powered by the company's Blackwell GPU architecture and insatiable demand from hyperscale data center operators. Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider expects Nvidia to beat the consensus revenue figure by roughly $2 billion, while Citi projects revenue closer to $80 billion. On Polymarket, the implied probability of a beat sits around 90%. Nvidia shares closed at $221.70 on May 18, up roughly 19.3% year-to-date and near the all-time closing high of $235.74 set on May 14. The stock's approximately $5.4 trillion market capitalization as of May 18 makes it the world's most valuable company — and the single largest holding in many of the most widely owned ETFs. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-in_article_unit'); }); ## Where the Nvidia Exposure Is Highest Not all ETFs carry the same Nvidia risk. Here is how the major funds stack up by Nvidia weight: [**SMH**](https://www.etf.com/SMH) (VanEck Semiconductor ETF): ~19% Nvidia weight. This is the purest large-cap semiconductor bet. With just 25 holdings and a market-cap weighting methodology, [**SMH**](https://www.etf.com/SMH) lives and dies by its top names. Nvidia is nearly one-fifth of the fund. Page views for [**SMH**](https://www.etf.com/SMH) on ETF.com are up 42.8% — investors are clearly watching. [**VGT**](https://www.etf.com/VGT) (Vanguard Information Technology ETF): ~18.5% Nvidia weight. [**VGT**](https://www.etf.com/VGT) casts a wider net than [**SMH**](https://www.etf.com/SMH), holding over 300 tech stocks including software, hardware, and services companies alongside semiconductors. But Nvidia is still nearly a fifth of the fund, making it just as sensitive to Wednesday's report. [**QQQ**](https://www.etf.com/QQQ) (Invesco [**QQQ**](https://www.etf.com/QQQ) Trust): ~9.4% Nvidia weight. [**QQQ**](https://www.etf.com/QQQ) is ETF.com's most-visited fund page with 351,000 page views last month, up 16.6%. Its ~102-stock Nasdaq-100 tracking provides more diversification than semiconductor-focused funds, but Nvidia is still comfortably the largest holding. A 5% move in Nvidia stock translates to roughly a 0.5% move in [**QQQ**](https://www.etf.com/QQQ). [**SOXX**](https://www.etf.com/SOXX) (iShares Semiconductor ETF): ~7% Nvidia weight. [**SOXX**](https://www.etf.com/SOXX) uses a market-cap weighting methodology, so Nvidia's influence is more muted here than in [**SMH**](https://www.etf.com/SMH). Micron, AMD, and Broadcom all carry similar weights. For investors who want semiconductor exposure with less single-stock concentration, [**SOXX**](https://www.etf.com/SOXX) offers a different risk profile. [**XLK**](https://www.etf.com/XLK) (Technology Select Sector SPDR): ~14% Nvidia weight. [**XLK**](https://www.etf.com/XLK) holds the S&P 500's technology constituents, giving it a large-cap tilt. Apple and Microsoft round out the top three, so Nvidia is one of three mega-cap pillars rather than the dominant force. ## The Ripple Effect Beyond Tech Nvidia's reach extends well beyond dedicated technology ETFs. The stock is a top-10 holding in broad market funds like [**SPY**](https://www.etf.com/SPY) and [**VOO**](https://www.etf.com/VOO), where it accounts for roughly 6-7% of assets. It's also a meaningful weight in AI-themed ETFs like [**BOTZ**](https://www.etf.com/BOTZ) (Global X Robotics & AI) and [**AIQ**](https://www.etf.com/AIQ) (Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology). Even the [**DRAM**](https://www.etf.com/DRAM) (Roundhill Memory ETF) — the standout thematic story of 2026 with 107%+ YTD returns and $3 billion in AUM — has indirect Nvidia exposure through the memory demand chain. AI-driven HBM demand from Nvidia's data center customers is what's fueling the memory semiconductor boom. ## What a Beat or Miss Means for Your Portfolio History offers a guide. In each of the past four quarters, Nvidia has beaten revenue estimates, and the stock moved 5-10% in the sessions surrounding the report. Given current weightings, here is what a hypothetical 7% Nvidia move would mean: [**SMH**](https://www.etf.com/SMH): ~1.3% move from Nvidia alone [**VGT**](https://www.etf.com/VGT): ~1.3% move [**QQQ**](https://www.etf.com/QQQ): ~0.65% move [**SOXX**](https://www.etf.com/SOXX): ~0.5% move [**SPY**](https://www.etf.com/SPY)/[**VOO**](https://www.etf.com/VOO): ~0.4% move Those figures assume no contagion — but in practice, a strong Nvidia result tends to lift the entire semiconductor and AI complex, amplifying the effect. A miss would do the reverse, and with the 10-year yield at 4.63% already pressuring growth multiples, the downside scenario could be sharper than the upside. ## How to Position For investors who already hold [**QQQ**](https://www.etf.com/QQQ) or broad market index funds, Wednesday's report is a risk to manage, not a trade to chase. The Nvidia exposure is already baked in. For those considering adding semiconductor exposure ahead of the report, the choice comes down to concentration tolerance. [**SMH**](https://www.etf.com/SMH) offers the most Nvidia upside — and the most downside. [**SOXX**](https://www.etf.com/SOXX) spreads the risk more evenly. [**VGT**](https://www.etf.com/VGT) and [**XLK**](https://www.etf.com/XLK) provide technology diversification beyond chips. One thing is clear: with nearly $6 trillion in market cap and double-digit weights across the most popular ETFs in America, Nvidia's Wednesday evening call is everyone's business. Check your holdings. You almost certainly own more Nvidia than you think. *Use the* [*ETF Comparison Tool*](https://www.etf.com/tools/etf-comparison) *to see exactly how much Nvidia exposure your portfolio carries.* --- *This article was generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by ETF.com staff.* **Investment Risk Disclosure** The information provided on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. Nothing on this site should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial product. **General Investment Risks** Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investors may receive back less than they originally invested. 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