Fitzsimmons: Mexico, India & Indonesia Attractive Long Term

September 16, 2014 Is there any market where the consensus is wrong and you actually see assets grossly mispriced? Where do you see opportunity and value?
Fitzsimmons: Nothing right now stands out as remarkably mispriced. If you take Russia, it's kind of binary in terms of, if you were to have an intensification of fighting and activity, involvement of Russia in Eastern Ukraine and a further escalation of sanctions—if that were to break down, I think some of the residual "Russia looks cheap and this is going to have to get resolved because it can't possibly go pear-shaped"—you could have a reconsideration of that if further sanctions that drove deeper on both sides were to come out of a reintensification of combat.

On the other side, I think if this truce does hold, and if it basically achieves the aims certainly that suit Moscow, the market has been rather forgiving, and we haven't plumbed the lows of the second quarter in this period since the MH17 incident.

So if you really parked this in a more lasting way through a truce, and if you get through the next couple of weeks and months, get through the parliamentary elections in Ukraine, and you get to a modus vivendi between Kiev and Moscow, and especially if you were to get a deal that resolves the still-uncertain situation with regard to winter gas between Russia and Ukraine and transit across Ukraine between Russia and Europe, then I think Russia would be seen again as this undervalued story.

The other market that stood out in the last few weeks in terms of client interest is Brazil in the context of the events with Campos' passing and the rise of Marina [Silva] as the alternate opposition candidate. Then on top of that, over the weekend, now the issues around the Petrobras scandal and how that'll play out.

In this case, you've already had a significant positive move in Brazilian equities, and you had a positive story in the currency. The reality is much more complex. Even if you were to get Marina rather than Dilma [Rousseff], and given this deeply conflicted story with Petrobras, and given Petrobras' relative weight within the Bovespa, it's a much more complex story.

It would be much more sensitive to not only the domestic story and how it evolves with a very weak economy and processing the run into the election in October, it would be very highly sensitive to external factors.

So again, if there were to be any tests of the recent strength in global equities broadly, and particularly in the U.S., then you've got a lot of room for the Bovespa to fall still within the range of this year. Thanks for your time.

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