Yardeni: Small-Cap Exodus Won’t Stall S&P 500

September 30, 2014

ETF.com: The other sector where investors have been reaching for yield is REITs. In 2014, in a surprise twist, REIT ETFs have surged in performance and assets. Do you like REITs, or do you see some risk here?
Yardeni: REITs are OK. I don't really feel strongly one way or another about them. They've had a good run. They do well when bond yields come down, or bond yields stabilize. They stabilize, and you just get your return on them. They're still a reasonable place, but don't expect any big gains on them.

ETF.com: You predicted in March that the U.S. dollar would strengthen this year. In recent months, the dollar has really surged against a broad basket of currencies. Do you see that continuing into next year?
Yardeni: I do. The U.S. economy is likely to outperform many other major economies like Japan and the eurozone. So that's favorable for the dollar. One of the reasons it will favor the dollar is because foreigners will continue to pile into our bond and stock markets. A stronger dollar would be a negative for commodities for prices.

So shorting commodities, or certainly not being long, would be my scenario. I think gold will continue to underperform. The price of oil may continue to go lower, which would be a big benefit to the U.S. economy, particularly consumer-related stocks and of course, any transportation stocks.

ETF.com: A lot of currency-hedged ETFs are starting to take off, especially in this rising-dollar scenario. Do you have an opinion on currency -hedging for investors looking to invest overseas?
Yardeni: The problem with having unhedged positions is that you're really taking two bets. Investing is a tough game to start with, and trying to also judge the currency where it goes can be pretty tough. If the dollar is going to be stronger, if my forecast is correct, then you want to be hedged.

ETF.com: Thanks for your time.

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