The Case For Renminbi And FXCH

December 20, 2011

 

 

As the Wall Street Journal article pointed out, the general consensus seems to be more of a neutral view on the renminbi in the near future, instead of a downright depreciation.

As a reference, in 2008 during the financial crisis when Chinese exports plunged, China simply halted the renminbi's appreciation for a few years. But it didn't actually weaken its currency against the greenback.

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Fast-forward to the current economic crisis. If China were to actually depreciate its currency against the dollar, could you imagine the political friction that would cause with Washington? While it's always possible, it's a scenario that both sides would probably want to avoid.

Concluding Thoughts

Despite the negative tone of recent months, most economists and investors still believe CNY—again the onshore currency market, not the Market Vectors ETN—to be undervalued relative to the dollar over the long haul.

The internationalization of the renminbi is also accelerating, and there's chatter about additional offshore renminbi markets in London and Singapore possibly on the way. Expectations are also growing for full-convertibility coming within the next several years.

While economic and political fears may be shunning many investors away from Chinese equities, for those still bullish on China, FXCH is another play to maintain exposure to China, perhaps without having to take on all the volatility associated with Chinese equities.

"We continue to believe that FXCH represents a great way of playing the economic growth in China," Rydex's Davidow added.

FXCH may not be the slam dunk of being backed by onshore CNY, but short of full-convertibility in that market, the CurrencyShares ETF still offers investors the "purest" way to gain exposure to China's currency out of the current mix of exchange-traded products.


Disclosure: I am currently long FXCH.

 

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