Vim In The VIX

July 25, 2007

I've got the solution, Jim: Forget large-caps and bonds, and put it all on the VIX instead.

The market's fear gauge is the new hot spot in the market, and also the only thing I can find besides the dollar that is "cheap" on a historical basis. But you gotta move fast, because the VIX is heating up.  The market's fear gauge has jumped from just under 15 to almost 19 in the past three trading days, and is now up over 100% from its 52-week low. In fact, it is trading at its highest level since August 2004. As the email spam might read: This one is going to the moon, baby!

But here's the kicker: It still has room to move.  Like a red-hot dot.com, the VIX was all the way up at 42 back in 2002. So get in now because the ride is just starting.

The beauty of the VIX is that if, as you expect, the market falls apart, the VIX will almost by definition move to new highs. 

There is a catch, unfortunately: You can't buy the spot VIX. It's not a tradeable index, at least not yet.  So I guess you better keep looking into those bonds, until the ETF developers get to work and find a solution to the vexing tradable VIX issue.

 

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