- Are ‘monster gains’ too good to be true?
- Truth vs. fiction in returns
- The Guinness Exploration connection
I used to dread going to my mailbox. Often the dross—everything from weighty and mostly useless packets of advertising coupons to solicitations for free trial memberships at local fitness clubs—outweighed the legitimate mail.
This week, though, a special treat awaited me. Emblazoned on a rather densely packed envelope from the Elite Stock Report was the promise ("Details Inside!") of "Monster gains inside the next 60 days!" Normally, these missives get round-filed without being opened, but I figured I could a spare a few minutes to better my fortunes with "monster gains."
The envelope yielded a 12-page "special report" penned by Elite Stock Report editor Colin McCabe crowing about his junior gold stock picks "screaming" as the market "explodes." (One has to wonder what war zone Mr. McCabe's subscribers live in. Have you seen explosions in the gold stock market recently?)
McCabe's latest pick will—will, mind you—not only hand his subscribers those "monster gains" in two months, he says, but also turn a tenfold profit within a year. Reading that, I quickly reached for my yellow highlighter to mark dates on my calendar. Let's see, the newsletter came to me on February 16, so I should be able to pay off last year's taxes with my "monster gains" by April 15 and still be rich enough to afford all those Christmas toys in December. Goody!
Turning back to the report, I note that McCabe has helpfully saved me highlighter ink. His report's important bits are pre-highlighted, starting with the slug exhorting me to "Buy shares immediately in Guinness Exploration (OTCBB: GNXP) while it still trades at about $1 ..." followed by the declaration that "This stock is an easy ‘quick double' and it could be a ten-bagger before the year is out."
Guinness Exploration (GNXP) Vs. Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ)
Wow! Pretty confident, ain't he?
And why shouldn't he be? The first few pages regale me with his past stock-picking acumen. Page 3, titled "My Gold Picks Are Going Bananas ... ," highlights some of McCabe's winning recommendations from 2009.
The first is Coral Gold Resources (OTCBB: CLHRF), whose chart is overlaid with the legend "Up 1,500%." Unfortunately, McCabe forgot to list the dates he recommended the purchase and sale of this stock. The accompanying chart, though, illustrates the stock's price trajectory from December 2008 through October 2009. Checking the historical record, however, reveals that the maximum possible gain over that period would have been no more than 700 percent.
Next up is Patriot Gold Corp. (OTCBB: PGOL), which McCabe claims "handed us 377%." Oops. He must be really absent-minded, as there are no in-and-out dates here, either. But the accompanying chart does show a price trail from February through July 2009. Odd, considering the most that could have been made during that time would have been 195 percent. Odder still is the fact that McCabe's chart looks nothing like the actual price record for the stock.
The chart for U.S. Gold Corp. (NYSE Amex: UXG) does look familiar, though. McCabe claims a 292 percent gain on this stock, only slightly more than the maximum possible 287 percent for the January-September 2009 period illustrated.