USDA lowers its estimates for stocks, production and yields.
Grain prices surged today after the United States Department of Agriculture released its latest Crop Production report. The USDA said that U.S. corn stocks were now expected to end the 2011/2012 season at 714 million bushels, below last month’s projection of 870 million and the consensus estimate of 735 million. Weather is the culprit for the decline. This past July was the hottest on record since 1955, which negatively impacts yields for corn and soybeans.
Both production and yields were below expectations. U.S. corn production in the season is forecast to be 12.914 billion bushels, below last month’s 13.47 billion projection and the 13.087 billion consensus estimate. Corn yields in the next harvest are expected to be 153 bushels per acre, down from the 158.7 forecast of last month and the 155.8 consensus estimate.
Corn prices were last up by the exchange limit of $0.30 to $7.06/bushel.
Meanwhile, the USDA also had bullish news for soybeans. Ending stocks for the grain are now expected to total 155 million bushels, down from the prior months’ 175 million estimate and the analyst consensus of 174 million.
Soybeans production may total 3.056 billion bushels, down from the prior months’ 3.225 billion estimate and the analyst consensus of 3.194 billion.
Soybeans prices were last trading up $0.37 to $13.37/bushel.
Finally, wheat prices were joining in the rally, rising by $0.23 to $7.08/bushel.
The USDA now expects wheat ending stocks to total 671 million bushels, close to last month’s 670 million estimate and slightly above the analyst consensus of 668 million.
Wheat production may total 2.077 billion bushels, down from the 2.106 billion estimate of the prior month, but close to the 2.076 consensus.