[This article originally appeared in our June 2015 issue of ETF Report.]
We speak with macro experts on their outlook for the U.S. economy going forward.
Rogers may be the world’s best-known commodity investor, with his Rogers International Commodity Index and best-selling books on commodities and financial markets.
The S&P 500 is trading close to record highs. What’s your take on U.S. stocks?
Well, you just answered the question when you said “record high.” I don’t like to buy high and hope it goes higher. I prefer to buy shares in markets that are depressed—China, Russia, Japan. They’re countries where markets are very, very depressed, and I prefer to buy in places like that.
Similarly, are you avoiding the U.S. dollar right now because it’s gone through the roof and is close to 12-year highs?
I do own the U.S. dollar. I’m certainly not rushing out to buy at the moment. I’ve owned it for a couple of years and I’ve been quite vocal about it. I don’t have any confidence in the U.S. dollar to lead long term. After all, America’s the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and our debts are going higher and higher all the time.
The reason I own the dollar is because there’s more turmoil coming in the world, and during times of turmoil, many people flee to what they think is a safe haven, and the U.S. dollar’s perceived as a safe haven. It’s not for me, but some people think it is, so I own it.
I would not be surprised if the dollar turns into a bubble in a year or two or three as we have more turmoil. You see what’s happening to the Japanese yen, the Russian ruble, the euro, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar—the list goes on and on.
The U.S. dollar could turn into a bubble down the road. If it does, and if I’m still there, and if I’ve got any brains, I hope I’m smart enough to sell it.