Ag Report: Grains Fall On USDA Data; Corn Market Still Tight, But Ukrainian Exports May Double

September 15, 2011

Latest USDA data featured mainly bearish surprises, but offered mixed bag for corn.


Grain prices declined this week after the USDA released its latest projections in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand report this week.

With regard to corn, while the market remains tight, season-ending stocks were projected to be a bit higher than expected by the USDA. The department now sees those stocks totaling 672 million bushels, down from the prior 714-million-bushel projection, but above the 656 million that analysts had been anticipating.



On the bullish side, the USDA said that corn production may total only 12.497 billion bushels, below the 12.914 billion projection in August and the 12.575 billion that analysts were expecting. Yields also fell, with the department now projecting 148.1 bushels per acre, down from 153 in the prior month and the 149 analysts expected.




Overall, the corn supply picture for the U.S. — the world’s largest producer and exporter — remain bullish, though there were no major surprises in the latest figures. But supply outside the U.S. may be seeing some resurgence.

Ukrainian exports may reach 10 million metric tons this season, according to the USDA. That’s almost double last season’s 5.3 million metric tons and makes the country the third-largest exporter after the U.S. and Argentina, with projected exports of 41.9 million and 19.5 million, respectively.

Since Monday, corn prices have fallen about 4 percent, with prices last trading near $7.05/bushel.



Meanwhile, the USDA also had bearish news for soybeans. The department projects soybeans ending stocks at 165 million bushels, up from August’s 155 million and the analyst consensus of 152 million. Production is expected to total 3.085 billion bushels, above last month’s 3.056 billion and the 3.045 analyst expectation.

Soybeans were last trading near $13.62, down 1.82 percent since Monday.





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