Larry Baer's Technicals: Slowing World Economy May Point To Downturn For Commodities

October 31, 2012


S&P 500

The trend is down, and sell signals have been generated for the S&P 500 on the daily chart and it has confirmed it may be in a longer-term downtrend. The trend for the S&P continues to be to the upside on both the weekly and monthly chart, so it remains to be seen if this is simply a market correction or a longer-term move downwards.


E-Mini S&P 500 Daily Chart


High-Grade Copper

High-grade copper prices have been marching lower since it made new recent highs the second week of September. On the daily chart, the trend is down and I have a sell signal.

Copper issued a king’s cross counter-trend sell signal the second week of October and has fallen below its 9- and 20-period SMAs, a bearish indicator. On the monthly chart, the trend is down, and copper is an inside month so far in October. Because of its industrial applications, copper is considered by many market analysts and commentators as a bellwether of the world’s overall macroeconomic condition.


High Grade Copper Daily Chart


Bottom Line

Overall it seems that many markets have been range-bound with a downward bias.

We’ll have to wait and see as they reach the lower end of their range if these markets are range-bound or we are indeed in a longer-term trend down. Either way, it seems that shorting these markets may be the way to go.

Although all these markets are in downtrend, we will have to wait and see if they will continue lower in a double-dip, recession-type scenario or stay within their ranges and begin rallying again.


Disclaimer: Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed. From time to time, persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.

Contact Larry Baer at [email protected] or (312) 277-0112. To sign up for my free daily charts and setups newsletter: Visit Larry Baer's Options & Futures Trading Strategies blog at:

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