Soybeans Outlook Relies On China’s Ravenous Appetite

April 27, 2015

 

 

Soybean Exporters – Leading Countries ('000 Metric Tonnes – Marketing Year)

2013/14 Mar 2014/15
USA 44,815 48,716
Brazil 46,829 46,000
Argentina 7,842 8,000
Paraguay 4,800 4,800
Canada 3,471 3,700
Other 5,278 6,201

 

Source: USDA, FAS Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, March 10, 2015

 

10 Largest Importers of Soybeans – 2014/15 (March) ('000s Metric Tonnes)

10 Largest Soybean Importers

Source: USDA, FAS Grain: World Markets and Trade, March 10, 2015

 

On March 10, 2015, the USDA published the Foreign Agricultural Service updates to its production, supply and distribution database and released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

According to the WASDE report, in the year 2014/2015, global soybean production is projected to be a record 315.1 million tons, with Brazil soybean production projected at 94.5 million tons, Argentina at 56.0 million and Paraguay at 8.5 million. For the same period, U.S. soybean crush and exports are projected at 1,795 million bushels (48.9 million tons) and 1,790 million bushels (48.7 million tons) respectively, ending stocks remain projected at an eight-year high of 385 million bushels (10.5 million tons).

Of these exports, the primary destination is China. And, as noted in a recent paper from the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, so far this marketing year, “nearly one out of every four bushels of soybeans produced, or 13 bushels per acre, has been shipped to China.”

While yields have recently gone up and are expected to rise in 2014/15, it remains to be seen whether this season’s acreages—both planted and harvested—rise as sharply as the USDA appears to be anticipating.

 

 

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