US Production Negating OPEC Cuts
Whether a scenario of even lower oil prices (and by extension, lower energy and junk bond ETF prices) comes to pass largely depends on the trajectory of U.S. oil production. Output in the country is rising fast on the back of a renewed drilling boom, negating supply cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Emboldened by the recovery in crude prices since early last year, U.S. energy companies doubled the number of rigs they use to drill for oil and pushed U.S. oil production up to 9.1 million barrels per day, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration.
US Oil Production (thousand barrels per day)
The 650,000 barrels per day surge in U.S. oil output since last October offsets a big chunk of the 1 million barrels per day cut in OPEC production that the International Energy Agency reported for January. Those OPEC cuts―which will expire at the end of June―have proven to be ineffective. Just last week, U.S. stockpiles of crude oil hit a record 528.4 million barrels, flying in the face of the cartel's goal of reducing global inventories.
Throwing In The Towel?
Speaking at an industry conference in Houston this week, Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih said that "the green shoots in the U.S. are growing too fast” and that Saudi Arabia will neither “allow itself to be used by others” nor “bear the burden of free riders.”
If Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC throw in the towel and decide they no longer want to prop up oil prices for the benefit of U.S. oil producers, they'll refuse to extend the production cut agreement beyond June. In that case, global supplies will quickly increase by at least 1 million barrels per day, pushing prices well below current levels.
In that bearish scenario, energy and junk bond ETFs will certainly feel more pressure. The broader stock market could also take more notice of oil, creating a head wind for funds such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Contact Sumit Roy at [email protected]