Gartman: Gold A Buy, Bitcoin A Bust

September 25, 2018

There are so many wells that have been drilled and capped in the U.S. that can come on line very quickly. We're starting to see fracking operations take place, strangely enough, even in the U.K. Can you believe that? And the Russians have barely scratched the surface as far as fracking is concerned. Fracking operations will escalate very quickly any time you get above $80-81 a barrel on the OPEC basket.

Are we likely to see $60? Not for quite a long period of time. Keep an eye on what the term structures are doing. The term structures continue to widen, the backwardations continue to expand. As long as the backwardations on crude futures—whether it's WTI, Brent or even Dubai crude—continue to widen, you can't be short of crude. Is natural gas still dead money below $3/mmbtu?

Gartman: It seems to be, doesn't it? It gets to $3 and it backs right off. I see no reason to believe it’s going to break through, because it's easy to drill for natural gas here in the U.S.

Strangely enough, $3 is still a profitable enterprise. There are so many nat gas wells that have been capped, that anytime you get anywhere close to $3, that uncapping process occurs. Emerging market stocks are down nearly 20% from their highs of the year. Do you see bargains in that space?

Gartman: No, you don't try to catch the falling knife. I hear people explain to me all the time that owning emerging markets equities will, in the long run, pay off.

Do I think the Shanghai index will be higher 20 years from now than it is now? If course it shall. Do I think the Malaysian stock market will be higher 20 years from now than it is now? Of course, it shall. Do I think they'll both be weaker six months from now than they are now? Almost certainly they shall be.

If you had the ability to shut your eyes completely and absorb another 20% on the downside, I wish you well. Suffering through the 20% decline, however, will be serious; it will be difficult; and it's something I couldn't stomach. Most cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, have cratered this year. You’ve been consistently bearish on the asset class. Have you changed your views after the recent decline?

Gartman: No, I see no opportunity whatsoever. I think the cryptos are essentially worthless enterprises. I wish the world would stop equating bitcoin and blockchain, but they seem to be synonymous.

They shouldn't be. They're absolutely two completely divergent circumstances. I think the cryptos are all worth basically zero. You can't use them for purchases of anything. Perhaps 20 years from now, the cryptos will be worth something.

But do I still think that the trend is bearish? Do I still think that $6,000 for bitcoin is a very high price? Yes.

Email Sumit Roy at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter sumitroy2

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