The Economic Roots Of Beta Climates

May 30, 2009


Table 2 lists the rest of our trades since April 24. We also were taken out of the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (DTO) on May 20. We feel better about this trade than we do about SPXSO. Intermediate-term fundamentals are more supportive crude oil prices near $50, so we shorted crude through DTO when it was near $60. Our TA showed potential resistance near $61 with a potential pullback near $50. For now, crude is not trading with fundamentals. It is trading as a U.S. dollar hedge. About two years out, fundamentals support crude oil at $100 and higher longer term.

We added 5% more in defensive exposure through the shorting of the iShares MSCI EMU (EZU, EURO Zone) Index and the iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM, small companies) shares on May 8. These shorts will be covered if prices decline to $25 and $41, respectively, or shares will be closed if prices remain above $32.50 and $53.50 for three consecutive days.

We also sold the Energy Growth & Income Fund (FEN) on May 19 because it was trading at a 19% premium to its net asset value (NAV). Over the past year, we have purchased FEN near its NAV and sold it at 15% or more above its NAV on three occasions.

We held the UltraShort Gold ProShares Fund (GLL) from April 20-22. Gold bullion was technically weak at the time of purchase. After gold prices firmed, we sold GLL at a slight loss.

Additional pending good-until-cancel (GTC) orders are to sell half of EFU at $130 and half of SCC at $84 and half at $115.


Table 2. ETF Trades


Group Symbol Date and Time Operation Instrument/
Quantity Price Total Commission
Common DTO 5/13/09 Buy Stocks (Securities) 125 128.08 16010 8.95
Common DTO 5/13/09 Buy Stocks (Securities) 125 125.6 15700 8.95
Common DTO 5/20/09 Sell Stocks (Securities) 250 115.38 28845 8.95
Common EZU 5/8/09 Sell short Stocks (Securities) 2092 30.5 63806 8.95
Common FEN 5/19/09 Sell Stocks (Securities) 3926.34 19.43 76288.78 8.95
Common GLL 4/20/09 Buy Stocks (Securities) 3142.85 17.5 55000.01 8.95
Common GLL 4/22/09 Sell Stocks (Securities) 3142.85 16.92 53177.2 8.95
Common IWM 5/8/09 Sell short Stocks (Securities) 1250 51 63750 8.95
Common SCC 5/21/09 Buy Stocks (Securities) 295.75 67.642 20000.00 8.95



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