The Economic Roots Of Beta Climates

May 30, 2009




1. The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. The indicators are drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

2. Alan Abelson, "Woe Is Us," Barron's, January 26, 2009.

3. Real equity price declines for the U.S. (1929) and Japan (1992) of about 65% and 60%, respectively, because those two crises resulted in significant deflation. The nominal peak-to-trough equity declines in those two crises were more like 90% and 80%, respectively.

4. "Scrap the SCAP," May 24, 2009, InFocus. The midpoint of the 90% confidence interval.




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John Serrapere works on research and consulting projects through Arrow Insights. He welcomes comments and suggestions for future research at [email protected]



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