Analysis Of Results
Our final tally shows that five sure things failed to occur, while just one sure thing actually happened. We also had one draw and one too early to call. We’ll report again at the end of the second quarter.
The table shows the historical record since I began this series in 2010:
Only about 25% of sure things actually occurred. Keep these results in mind the next time you hear a guru’s forecast.
Larry Swedroe is the director of research for The BAM Alliance, a community of more than 140 independent registered investment advisors throughout the country.