BlackRock ETF, Grayscale Win? Bitcoin Doesn’t Care

Senior ETF Analyst

Sep 11, 2023

Reviewed by: Sean Allocca

Edited by: Ron Day

Less than three months ago, BlackRock Inc. shocked the investment world by filing for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The entrance of the world’s largest ETF issuer into the arena inflated expectations that the U.S. might finally see its first spot bitcoin after ten years of denials by the SEC.

A live spot bitcoin ETF could spur billions of dollars of money to move into bitcoin, pushing the price of the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency higher.

At least that was what a lot of investors thought when the world’s largest asset manager submitted its spot bitcoin ETF filing on June 15. The price of bitcoin surged from around $25,500 on the day of the submission to $31,000 a week later, a gain of more than 20%.

A few weeks after that, investors got wind of more good news on the crypto ETF front. VolatilityShares and a half a dozen other issuers had filed to launch ether futures ETFs in the U.S., and there were rumblings that the SEC might allow the funds to go live.

Ether, the world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency by market cap, reached nearly $2,000 in July, up from $1,650 in mid-June.

A month later, more good news: Grayscale had prevailed in its lawsuit against the SEC. The regulator had acted arbitrarily and capriciously by denying the firm from converting the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF, the court in charge of the lawsuit ruled.

BlackRock, Grayscale and Spot Bitcoin ETF Advances

But in the days after that decision was made, something unusual happened: the price of bitcoin fell. And not only did it fall from where it was immediately following the Grayscale verdict, it fell below where it was trading before the verdict came out.

In fact, bitcoin has now completely given up all of the gains that it saw following the entrance of BlackRock into the spot bitcoin ETF race in mid-June. Ether has fared even worse; it’s below where it was on the day that BlackRock made its submission.

In other words, even though the odds of a successful spot bitcoin ETF launch (and ether futures ETF launch) have risen significantly over the past few months, the cryptocurrency market doesn’t seem to care.

It’s a counter-intuitive situation, but also a reminder that cryptocurrency markets are difficult to predict. Should they successfully launch, new cryptocurrency ETFs could very well lead to higher demand for bitcoin and ether.

But how much new demand materializes through U.S.-listed cryptocurrency ETFs and whether that demand outweighs other drivers of cryptocurrency prices remains to be seen.

Contact Sumit Roy at [email protected].

Sumit Roy

| Contact: [email protected]

Sumit Roy is the senior ETF analyst for etf.com, where he has worked for 13 years. He creates a variety of content for the platform, including news articles, analysis pieces, videos and podcasts.

Before joining etf.com, Sumit was the managing editor and commodities analyst for Hard Assets Investor. In those roles, he was responsible for most of the operations of HAI, a website dedicated to education about commodities investing.

Though he still closely follows the commodities beat, Sumit covers a much broader assortment of topics for etf.com, with a particular focus on stock and bond exchange-traded funds.

He is the host of etf.com’s Talk ETFs, a popular video series that features weekly interviews with thought leaders in the ETF industry. Sumit is also co-host of Exchange Traded Fridays, etf.com’s weekly podcast series.

He lives in the San Francisco Bay Area, where he enjoys climbing the city’s steep hills, playing chess and snowboarding in Lake Tahoe.

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