GLD: Are Record Gold Prices a Contrarian Indicator?

Will the so-called Trump tariffs prove to be as bad for the economy and stock market as the Great Recession, the Covid-19 pandemic and the worst inflation in 40 years? First-quarter flows for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) are signaling a "yes."

According to etf.com flows data, GLD took in nearly $6 billion in assets during the quarter, as February and March flows for the physical gold exchange-traded fund rank among the highest in GLD’s 20-year history.

The massive inflows for the largest precious metals fund during the first quarter occurred alongside multiple all-time highs for gold, marking a 19.3% gain, the safe-haven asset's highest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 1986.

What do these massive milestones mean for gold, gold ETFs like GLD and the broader market going forward?

Only hindsight will tell, but history can provide clues from which an investor can draw their own conclusions.

After mining GLD data using etf.com’s ETF Fund Flows tool, the first clue struck me: The gold ETF’s largest monthly inflows since its 2004 inception was February 2009, when GLD attracted $5.6 billion. What happened next? The Great Recession ended, and a massive new bull market for stocks began.

GLD Flows and Gold Price Highs: ‘Others Are Fearful’  

Markets often turn on extremes, and gold is no exception. This is the foundation of contrarian investing. As the legendary value investor Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”  

How do we know if others are fearful? One sign is that they are buying gold, which is a preferred asset during times of economic and market turmoil. Another sign of fear is a stock market correction, which coincided with gold’s meteoric rise during the first quarter.

While GLD had net outflows of $678,000 in January, February and March saw giant inflows of $3.8 billion and $2.9 billion, respectively. Only during five months of the past 20+ years of GLD’s existence have flows been higher—most of which coincided with extreme market conditions:

GLD Record Flows: Key Takeaways

While GLD’s massive inflows do not guarantee an imminent rise for stocks, the 20+ year history is compelling:

• Two of the top 15 months for GLD inflows occurred in Q1 2025, driven primarily by fears of tariffs and stagflation. Consecutive months of inflows this size has historically preceded massive stock gains.
• February and March 2009, numbers one and thirteen in GLD net flows history, marked the beginning of the Post-Financial Crisis Recovery Bull Market (2009 to 2020), the second largest bull run for stocks in history.
• Four of the top 15 months for GLD inflows were recorded consecutively from April through July 2020, the peak of Covid 19 fear and uncertainty. The S&P 500 climbed nearly 100% from April 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021.
• September 2011’s $2.5 billion GLD inflows resulted from the debt ceiling crisis and Standard & Poor’s downgrading the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+, the first downgrade in history. Stocks would nearly enter a bear market, falling 19% in Q4, but would rally nearly 40% from those lows until February 2020.

Sell Gold, Buy Stocks or Both?

While Buffett himself does not advise market timing, his strategy has consistently been to sell greed and buy fear. The Oracle of Omaha is also famous for being a long-term investor. Thus, with fear pervading market sentiment, now is not a bad time to buy beaten-down stocks or even to sell high-flying gold ETFs.

With stocks still near the 10% correction level and gold trading at all-time highs, now could be a good time to rebalance. The opposite would have been true before this year, when stocks were trading at all-time highs while international stocks and bonds were lagging.

Thus, for many investors, perhaps the most responsible behavior as key asset prices move in opposite directions is to be neither greedy nor fearful, rebalance the portfolio and go back to living life. Based on where 2025 started, this might entail trimming off gains from gold and using those "winnings" to buy shares of beaten-down stocks.

Of course, there's always the risk that gold continues its climb higher and stocks resume their path downward.