GLD Gets $1B in Single Day as Gold Spikes

Some ETF investors are starting to put their faith in gold again. 

After bleeding assets for much of this year, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) registered its largest inflow since early 2021 on Friday. Investors put $959 million to work in the exchange-traded fund on that day, the best single-day haul for fund since Jan. 21, 2022, when it picked up $1.6 billion. 

Friday’s inflows cut GLD’s 2023 outflows down to $3 billion, a figure that could shrink further if worries about geopolitics continue to haunt investors. 

Since Oct. 6, the price of an ounce of gold has jumped by as much as 10% to almost $2,000 from $1,810. 

Gold Had Been Trending Lower

But prior to that surge, gold was trending lower as investors abandoned the metal because of a spike in long-term Treasury yields that made gold less attractive as a safe-haven asset. 

It’s no coincidence that gold bottomed out the day before the terrorist attacks on Israel. Geopolitical concerns have been a reliable catalyst for short-term gains in gold.  

On the other hand, they have a poor track record of sustaining rallies in the metal. For instance, in the two weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, gold jumped 9% to $2,070 from about $1,900.

But then it proceeded to fall 22% over the next six months as financial markets tumbled on the back of recession fears.  

Will history repeat itself this time around, or will gold continue to climb to new highs? 

Nothing is guaranteed, but it stands to reason that if the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, and particularly if it broadens out to include more countries, then gold could make a run for its highs (the record high was set in August 2020 at $2,075, just a hair above the post-Russia-invasion high). 

But if the conflict remains contained to the Gaza Strip, then investors might focus their attention back on high interest rates, putting pressure on gold.