The Trump ETF Trade Is Back On

ETFs that would be impacted by a second Trump term made big moves in Monday.

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sumit
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Senior ETF Analyst
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Reviewed by: etf.com Staff
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Edited by: James Rubin

The Trump trade is back on. Stocks that would likely benefit from a Trump presidency soared, while those that would be hurt by a second Trump term tumbled on Monday as investors speculated that the weekend’s assassination attempt on the former president would boost his odds of an election victory in November.

Notably, shares of Tesla jumped as much as 7%, while the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2x Shares (TSLL) spiked as much as 14% after CEO Elon Musk said he “fully endorses” Trump after the shooting.

Investors may be reasoning that a friendlier relationship between Musk and Trump could lead to policies that benefit Tesla, even though Trump has criticized electric vehicles in the past.  

Meanwhile, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) soared 10% on hopes that a Trump administration could be friendlier toward crypto than the Biden administration.

etf.com: IBIT five-day fund flows

Last week, the Republican National Committee Platform Committee adopted a policy platform that would seek to “end Democrats’ unlawful and unAmerican Crypto crackdown.”

Trump will be a headline speaker at the world’s largest Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tenn. later this month.

Renewable Energy-Focused TAN Plunges

Stocks tied to highly regulated industries, like health insurance and financial services, also rallied on Monday as investors began to price in the potential for fewer regulations under a Trump administration. 

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) traded up by as much as 1.5% on Monday. 

On the other hand, the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) plunged 6% on concerns that Trump would favor fossil fuels over renewable energy.

ETFs tied to China, like the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) also sank on expectations that a Trump presidency could lead to a more contentious trade war with China. 

Trump has promised to put tariffs of at least 60% on all Chinese imports if he is elected president again. 

Trump currently has a 2.7 point advantage over Biden based on the average of polls compiled by Real Clear Polling. 
 

Sumit Roy is the senior ETF analyst for etf.com, where he has worked for 13 years. He creates a variety of content for the platform, including news articles, analysis pieces, videos and podcasts.

Before joining etf.com, Sumit was the managing editor and commodities analyst for Hard Assets Investor. In those roles, he was responsible for most of the operations of HAI, a website dedicated to education about commodities investing.

Though he still closely follows the commodities beat, Sumit covers a much broader assortment of topics for etf.com, with a particular focus on stock and bond exchange-traded funds.

He is the host of etf.com’s Talk ETFs, a popular video series that features weekly interviews with thought leaders in the ETF industry. Sumit is also co-host of Exchange Traded Fridays, etf.com’s weekly podcast series.

He lives in the San Francisco Bay Area, where he enjoys climbing the city’s steep hills, playing chess and snowboarding in Lake Tahoe.

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