Trump-Linked ETFs Rise As Election Odds Jump

Markets reach fresh records as Trump prepares Republican convention appearance.

3 Updates 
Sun, November 3, 2024 At 2:30 PM EDT
DJ Shaw | Finance Reporter |

Markets breach records as investors see chances rise that ex-President wins again

U.S. equity markets rose Monday as investors bet that an unsuccessful assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump has boosted his chances of winning the upcoming November election. 

Bitcoin ETFs surged, following the cryptocurrency higher, due in part to Trump having positioned himself as a crypto cheerleader. The BlackRock Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) all added 10%. 

Trump Media & Technology Group, owner of the Truth Social Platform, skyrocketed 31% to $40.58. The VanEck Social Sentiment ETF (BUZZ), which holds 2.14% of DJT stock, rose 2.6%, reflecting both its exposure to Trump Media and broader market moves. 

Tesla shares also increased, rising 4.4% after CEO Elon Musk endorsed Trump’s presidential bid. This movement was reflected in leveraged ETFs, with the T-Rex 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLT) and they Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL) both adding 3.7%.

Gold futures also rose, with August delivery settling at $2,426.70, up $6, or 0.3%. This movement was mirrored in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which increased 0.3%. 

The broader market also saw growth, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) both gaining about 0.3%

Mon, July 15, 2024 At 1:30 PM EDT
Jeff Benjamin | Wealth Management Editor |

Crypto ETFs Pop as Trump Prospects Drive Markets

U.S. equity markets were in positive territory in early Monday afternoon trading as investors and market watchers digested the fallout from the Saturday assassination attempt on Donald Trump.

Election observers believe that the shooting in western Pennsylvania, which killed one spectator at the Trump rally and injured two others, would further bolster the former President’s chances of being re-elected in November.

Trump was already leading in the polls over President Joe Biden going into the weekend.

Despite the news over the weekend of the first assassination attempt on a sitting or former U.S. President since Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981, the markets opened to relative calm.

“I had expected to see some market volatility this morning,” said CFRA analyst Catherine Seifert.

Any upside market performance following the assassination attempt, she added, would likely be a “knee-jerk reaction that it will help Trump’s chances of winning.”

“Some of the market reaction this morning is the reaction to a Republican front runner and what that has historically meant to markets,” Seifert said. “The feeling is that a Republican candidate is better for business, but I don’t know if there’s any real evidence of that being true.”

Beyond the traditional equity markets, the biggest movers in the ETF space Monday were all strategies that leverage the performance of bitcoin.

The GraniteShares 2X Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) is up more than 22%, while the PowerShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF (BITU) is up nearly 20% in midday trading.

etf.com: BITU five-day flows
Mon, July 15, 2024 At 10:16 AM EDT
Kristin Myers | SVP Content/EIC |

DIA, IBIT Pop After Trump Survives Assassination Attempt

Markets jumped to record highs on the first trading day after Presidential candidate Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt over the weekend. 

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust rose in early trading Monday. 

Historical Price Chart for DIA

The fund, which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, rose over 0.4% to $401.89

Broad markets also rose early Monday. SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust jumped half a percentage point to a record $562.69. QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust which tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.7%.

Bitcoin ETFs soar Monday

Bitcoin prices rose on Monday as investors bet on an election victory for Trump, a pro-cryptocurrency candidate. 

According to CoinMarketCap, bitcoin prices jumped to roughly $63,000 from less than $58,000 just a week ago. The jump in the cryptocurrency sent bitcoin ETFs soaring in early trading Monday.

IBIT, the Blackrock Bitcoin Trust, the largest spot bitcoin ETF, jumped over 9% to nearly $36.

Leveraged bitcoin ETFs were among the top gainers Monday, according to etf.com data.

BTCL, the T-Rex 2X Long Bitcoin Daily Target ETF , BTFX, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Futures Leveraged Strategy ETF and BITU, the ProShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF all soared, rising over 18%.