Why Stock Market Volatility Is Creeping Higher

To be sure, the market isn't anywhere near where it was earlier this year, when fear and panic sent stocks plunging precipitously. At the time, certain measures of investor sentiment reached record lows, and the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY | A-97) had its worst start to the year since the Great Depression.

In January, the S&P 500 was down as much as 11.3% on the year, and the CBOE Volatility Index was north of 32.

Currently, the stock index is only down fractionally year-to-date, while the VIX is around 17—nowhere near panic levels, but up notably from 12.5 a month ago.

Year-To-Date Change In S&P 500

The Worry: Fed Rate Hikes

It's clear to see that the market is struggling this month after the swift rebound in March and April. On the positive side, crude oil and junk bonds aren't the problems they were in January and February.

Likewise, China has been out of the headlines, as the country’s economic and currency issues remain dormant for now.

On the other hand, the Fed is back in focus. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting released this week indicated more willingness on the part of Janet Yellen and company to raise rates. In turn, the probability of a rate hike this year based on Fed funds futures spiked significantly.

Traders now see a 28% chance that the Fed will increase rates in June, up from nearly zero last week. Moreover, there's now almost a 50% chance the Fed hikes rates by the July meeting, according to the futures market.

No Earnings Growth

Perhaps it was just a coincidence, but the fact that the stock market plunged shortly after the first Fed rate hike back in December is surely raising some concerns among investors that a second hike may lead to more selling.

That's especially the case when investors don't have earnings growth to hang their hats on. Corporate profits have declined on a year-over-year basis for four-consecutive quarters. Even excluding the energy sector, earnings have stalled, with no growth seen in the first quarter.

Market Peak’s 1-Year Anniversary

The lack of earnings growth may be the main reason that, despite many ups and downs, the S&P 500 hasn't gone anywhere during the past year.

In fact, today marks the one-year anniversary of when the S&P 500 hit its all-time intraday peak around 2,135. There have been two major corrections and two big rebounds since then, but a look at the charts reveals a flat, range-bound market.

S&P 500 (2015 to present)

Worse, the small-cap Russell 2000 (iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM | A-91)) is in a downtrend. As can be seen from the chart below, the index has put in lower highs and lower lows since the peak of last year.

Russell 2000 (2015 to present)

Based on the latest close, the Russell 2000 is trading in the same place it was back in 2013.

Catalysts To Drive Market

It's anyone's guess if stocks are set for yet another leg lower or whether they'll finally break out of their funk and hit new highs.

Renewed earnings growth would be the most obvious catalyst for an upside push. That's not easy to come by, given the tight labor market and margin pressure corporations are facing, but it's a necessity for the bull market to continue.

As for the downside, it doesn't take much to spook investors, as we've seen since last August. A correction in the 10% range can be ignited by any number of headline-grabbing catalysts that spark a sudden shift in sentiment.

But a bigger, 20%-plus bear market in the S&P 500 would take a much larger scare or even a recession (the last 20% sell-off came in 2011 during the eurozone crisis).

Contact Sumit Roy at [email protected].