Gold vs. Bitcoin: Which Is Winning the Battle of Safe Havens?

Gold ETFs have outperformed their bitcoin counterparts this year amid Trump tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. So, which offers better shelter from the storm?

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sumit
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Senior ETF Analyst
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Reviewed by: Paul Curcio
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Edited by: Kiran Aditham

In the battle of safe havens, gold has the upper hand against bitcoin. From DeepSeek to trade wars, financial markets have had to deal with a lot of uncertainty and volatility over the past couple of weeks.

But while bitcoin has acted like a tech stock, gold has insulated investors from the havoc.

On Monday, as Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China rattled investors, the price of the yellow metal hit a fresh record high above $2,820/oz, boosting year-to-date gains for to SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to 7.5%.

In contrast, the price of bitcoin fell as low as $91,000 Monday, sliding as much as $6,000 in an hour. The cryptocurrency has since recovered to $99,000, but remains notably below its all-time high of $109,000.

There are a couple ways of looking at this. Bitcoin bulls might argue that despite the big gyrations, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is up 6% since the start of the year, similar to the return for GLD.

IBIT Outperforms GLD

This issue, combined with the fact that IBIT doubled last year, trouncing GLD’s 26% return, makes bitcoin the better safe haven bet. 

On the other hand, gold bulls might counter that, sure, bitcoin has more upside potential than gold, but during market stress, it tends to act more like a volatile stock than a safe haven.

That makes it a fundamentally different asset than gold, which often rallies when other assets are falling—a characteristic that makes it the better portfolio diversification tool.

In the safe haven debate, the reaction is geared positively toward the gold bulls. What good is a safe haven if it doesn’t provide safety when you need it most?

That doesn’t mean bitcoin is necessarily a bad bet; it’s just something different. It’s also certainly possible that bitcoin evolves to the point where it starts to act more independently of the stock market during times of stress, similar to gold.

But that hasn't happened yet.

Sumit Roy is the senior ETF analyst for etf.com, where he has worked for 13 years. He creates a variety of content for the platform, including news articles, analysis pieces, videos and podcasts.

Before joining etf.com, Sumit was the managing editor and commodities analyst for Hard Assets Investor. In those roles, he was responsible for most of the operations of HAI, a website dedicated to education about commodities investing.

Though he still closely follows the commodities beat, Sumit covers a much broader assortment of topics for etf.com, with a particular focus on stock and bond exchange-traded funds.

He is the host of etf.com’s Talk ETFs, a popular video series that features weekly interviews with thought leaders in the ETF industry. Sumit is also co-host of Exchange Traded Fridays, etf.com’s weekly podcast series.

He lives in the San Francisco Bay Area, where he enjoys climbing the city’s steep hills, playing chess and snowboarding in Lake Tahoe.

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