6 ETF Predictions for 2026

The ETF industry is coming off a record year for inflows and product launches. Heading into 2026, a handful of trends look set to keep rolling. Here are my six ETF predictions for the year ahead. 

1. Money market and ultra-short Treasury ETFs keep growing (and SGOV crosses $100B)

The money-market/ultra-short-term bond ETF category will keep expanding in 2026, and the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) will likely surpass $100 billion in assets under management.

This is mostly simple extrapolation. SGOV took in nearly $39 billion last year and is already sitting around $70 billion today. Investors are increasingly using ETFs, whether traditional ultra-short Treasury ETFs or newer money market ETFs, to park cash and earn yield.

There’s also a massive runway. Traditional money market mutual funds still hold roughly $7.7 trillion in assets, so even modest migration toward ETFs leaves plenty of room for growth.

Vanguard’s entrance into the space has added fuel to the fire. The Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL) has already gathered about $4.7 billion in assets since launching 11 months ago. 

2. Options “income” ETFs continue to proliferate

2025 could be called the year of options-based ETFs, and 2026 might not be far behind.

Issuers rolled out countless “income” ETFs that use options to generate cash and distribute it to investors. Whether these funds are stretching the definition of income (I think they are), and whether they actually benefit investors (I’m skeptical), they’re clearly working from a product and asset-gathering perspective.

Many of these ETFs are relatively expensive, yet still attract assets. That incentive structure almost guarantees more launches.

Whether it’s single stocks, broad indexes, active strategies, bonds, or alternatives, issuers will keep slapping covered-call overlays on just about anything. As the market becomes more crowded, expect increasingly convoluted options structures to emerge in search of differentiation.

3. The rise of the “star” ETF manager continues

I expect the rise of star managers in the ETF industry to continue in 2026—both managers entering the ETF space already famous and those becoming famous because of it.

The number of household names in the industry has been slowly increasing. In 2020–21, Cathie Wood broke out with the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). In 2024, Tom Lee, already an investing celebrity thanks to his constant media presence, launched the Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY). Then in 2025, Dan Ives entered the ETF world with the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (IVES).

While not as high-profile, hedge fund manager David Orr also made a name for himself with the strong early performance of the Militia Long/Short Equity ETF (ORR), which launched in 2025.

With the bull market still intact and enormous interest in AI-related stocks, the environment is ripe for stock-picking managers to take big swings and potentially build cult followings if performance cooperates.

4. VOO becomes the first trillion-dollar ETF

This one isn’t going out on a limb by any means, but it would be a major milestone.

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has pulled in more than $100 billion in inflows in each of the past two years and now sits around $853 billion in assets. Barring a major market drawdown, it has a legitimate shot at becoming the first trillion-dollar ETF in 2026.

Not a game-changer, but a symbolic moment for the ETF industry.

5. Crypto ETF launches boom, but flows concentrate at the top

The SEC’s generic listing standards have opened the door to a wave of new crypto ETFs, and I expect that wave to continue. Many will hold assets that make you squint at the ticker and say, “What is that?”

But I don’t think most of these products gain real traction in 2026.

Flows will continue to concentrate in familiar names, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and perhaps Solana. We saw an extreme version of this last year, when about $34 billion flowed into U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs, and nearly all of it went into the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA).

There were exceptions. The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) launched in October, and has already gathered roughly $730 million in assets. Solana may not be as well-known as Bitcoin or Ethereum, but it has real developer activity and a devoted following.

More crypto ETFs will launch, and the lineup will get increasingly weird. But in 2026, I expect most of the money to stay concentrated at the top.

6. Private credit ETFs continue to disappoint

Private credit ETFs still feel like a square peg in a round hole.

The launch of the SPDR SSGA IG Public & Private Credit ETF (PRIV) was a landmark moment, having brought private credit into the ETF wrapper for the first time. But I don’t see broad investor demand materializing.

Private credit headlines make investors nervous, and the ETF structure isn’t a natural fit for illiquid assets. Early performance hasn’t helped either. Since launch, PRIV is up about 5.6%, only modestly more than the 4.9% for the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG).

There are plenty of ways to step out of AGG and boost returns without layering in the complexity, opacity, and liquidity concerns of private credit. For now, I think most investors will pass.