Nvidia’s Earnings Report Is About to Test the AI Rally
With its massive index weight and central role in the AI boom, Nvidia’s results could sway the entire market and the ETFs tied to it.
Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday after the close, and few companies have more influence on the market or the ETFs tied to it. It’s the largest holding in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at 8.1%, with similarly heavy weights across virtually all broad U.S. equity funds.
That alone would make its earnings important, but Nvidia’s influence runs much deeper than its index weight.
The stock has been by far the biggest driver of the market’s gains this year. Its 40% rally in 2025 has accounted for roughly 2.8 percentage points of the S&P 500’s 15.7% return. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon round out the top of the index, but they haven’t come close to driving returns the way Nvidia has.
At the Center of the AI Boom
Nvidia sits at the heart of the AI boom, which continues to be the dominant force behind equity returns. As the world’s largest producer of GPUs, the chips that power AI models and applications like ChatGPT, the company has been benefiting from enormous spending by Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and other big tech customers.
These firms have poured tens of billions of dollars into data centers built specifically to run AI workloads, and Nvidia has captured the bulk of that investment.
That central role is why Nvidia’s earnings reports are so closely watched. Investors want to know whether the AI boom is still accelerating or beginning to cool, and Nvidia’s numbers offer one of the clearest reads on that trend.
Last month, CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia had $500 billion of orders for its current Blackwell chips and its next generation of Rubin chips through next year. The comment sparked excitement but also confusion about whether that figure included previously shipped products or networking hardware, which has become a growing part of Nvidia’s business.
What Wall Street Expects
Wednesday’s report will likely bring more clarity. Analysts expect earnings of $1.26 a share on $55.2 billion of revenue, which would represent more than 57% growth from a year ago. For the January quarter, the Street is looking for $61.8 billion of revenue, also roughly 57% growth. Investors will want to see Nvidia beat analysts’ estimates for the third quarter and issue fourth-quarter guidance that comes in above current forecasts, but they’ll also be listening for any clues about demand and visibility into 2026.
Competition remains a recurring theme. Nvidia still dominates the AI chip market, but investors remain alert to challenges from AMD and from custom silicon developed by the major cloud providers, including Alphabet’s TPUs.
Commentary on China may also be notable. The company has been shut out of the Chinese market for most of this year, first due to U.S. export controls and then because China discouraged local firms from buying Nvidia hardware.
There has been some chatter about resumed shipments of older-generation chips, but China has not been a meaningful driver of recent results.
The Impact on ETFs
Regardless of how the numbers land, Nvidia’s earnings will ripple across the ETF landscape. Its heavy weight in broad market funds means its stock reaction will influence the performance of VOO, SPY, IVV, and total-market funds like VTI.
The results will also matter for the broader AI ecosystem, including semiconductor suppliers, data center builders, and mega-cap tech firms whose strategies and spending plans depend on the continued growth of AI.
Nvidia has carried much of the market this year. Wednesday’s earnings will show whether it can keep doing it.
