UTEN ETF Drops To One-Month Low After Jobs Surprise

The F/m US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (UTEN) slipped to its lowest level in a month on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected jobs data pushed the 10-year Treasury yield higher.

The benchmark yield was 4.15% midday Wednesday, up 6 basis points on the day. That’s a notable rebound from the 3.94% low reached at the end of October, one of the lowest points of the year.

Labor Strength Shakes Rate-Cut Bets

The yield started climbing last week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that a December rate cut wasn’t guaranteed. It climbed further today after ADP reported private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, reversing a 29,000 job loss in September.

With the government shutdown delaying the official nonfarm payrolls release, the ADP report is serving as the market’s best real-time read on employment conditions.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures markets still price in about a 65% chance of a December rate cut. But traders now expect that to be the final cut until mid-2026, when the Fed could trim rates another two times. That implies a terminal fed funds rate around 3.0%–3.25%, notably higher than prior expectations.

Why The 10-Year Bounced

The shift underscores that even if the Fed continues easing, the path lower for rates may be shallow. A labor market that refuses to crack could keep longer-term yields from falling much further, explaining the rebound in the 10-year.

Some traders also pointed to the Supreme Court’s tariff case as a factor behind the yield move. Justices from across the ideological spectrum appeared skeptical of President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose broad import duties, raising the odds that the court could strike them down.

A ruling against the tariffs could boost growth expectations by removing a potential drag on trade, even as it reduces inflation risk from higher import costs.

Prediction market data from Polymarket show traders now assign roughly a 30% chance that the Supreme Court upholds the tariffs, down from about 40% at the start of the month.

UTEN Tracks The Benchmark Directly

With $241 million in assets, UTEN offers one of the cleanest ways to track the 10-year Treasury yield.

Unlike traditional Treasury ETFs such as the iShares 7–10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which holds a basket of notes in that maturity range, UTEN owns only the most recently issued 10-year Treasury. 

It rebalances on the last business day of each month, keeping exposure tightly aligned with the benchmark security that anchors everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing costs.